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Latos, Beata, Lefort, Thierry, Flatau, Maria K., Flatau, Piotr J., Permana, Donaldi S., Baranowski, Dariusz B., Paski, Jaka A. I., Makmur, Erwin, Sulystyo, Eko, Peyrillé, Philippe, Feng, Zhe, Matthews, Adrian J. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0492-1168 and Schmidt, Jerome M.
(2021)
Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia.
Monthly Weather Review, 149 (5).
pp. 1381-1401.
ISSN 0027-0644
Abstract
On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia.Meteorological conditions on 22 January 2019 leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area are studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system that developed over the Java Sea. Low-level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92% of December-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWspropagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, while the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is 8 times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | extreme events,flood events,kelvin waves,madden-julian oscillation,maritime continent,precipitation,atmospheric science ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1902 |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science > School of Natural Sciences (former - to 2024) University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Fluids & Structures Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Numerical Simulation, Statistics & Data Science |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Feb 2021 00:58 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Nov 2024 12:43 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/79266 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0262.1 |
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