Dynamic hazards modelling for predictive longevity risk assessment

Kulinskaya, Elena, Gitsels, Lisanne Andra, Bakbergenuly, Ilyas and Wright, Nigel R. (2021) Dynamic hazards modelling for predictive longevity risk assessment. Insurance Mathematics and Economics, 96. pp. 222-231. ISSN 0167-6687

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Abstract

Predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on geodemographic postcode-based consumer classification are widely used in the pension and life insurance industry. However, these are static socio-economic models not directly related to health information. Health information is increasingly used for annuity underwriting in the UK, using health status when the annuity is purchased. In real life, people develop new health conditions and lifestyle habits and can start and stop a certain treatment regime at any time. This requires the ability to dynamically classify clients into time-varying risk profiles based on the presence of evolving health-related conditions, treatments and outcomes. We incorporate landmark analysis of electronic health records (EHR), in combination with the baseline hazards described by Gompertz survival distributions, for dynamic prediction of survival probabilities and life expectancy. We discuss a case-study based on landmark analysis of the survival experience of a cohort of 110,243 healthy participants who reached age 60 between 1990–2000.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Computing Sciences
Faculty of Science
Related URLs:
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 25 Nov 2020 00:50
Last Modified: 13 Jan 2021 00:53
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/77794
DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.11.001

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