Beltrami, Filippo, Burlinson, Andrew, Giulietti, Monica, Grossi, Luigi, Rowley, Paul and Wilson, Grant (2020) Where did the time (series) go? Estimation of marginal emission factors with autoregressive components. Energy Economics, 91. ISSN 0140-9883
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Abstract
This paper offers a novel contribution to the literature on Marginal Emission Factors (MEF) by proposing a robust empirical methodology for their estimation across both time and space. Our Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models with time-effects not only outperforms the established models in the economics literature but it also proves more reliable than variations adopted in the field of engineering. Utilising half-hourly data on carbon emissions and generation in Great Britain, the results allow us to identify a more stable path of MEFs than obtained with existing methodologies. We also estimate marginal emission effects over subsequent time periods (intra-day), rather than focussing only on individual settlement periods (inter-day). This allows us to evaluate the annual cycle of emissions as a result of changes in the economic and social activity which drives demand. Moreover, the reliability of our approach is further confirmed upon exploring the cross-country context. Indeed, our methodology proves reliable when applied to the case of Italy, which is characterised by a different data generation process. Crucially, we provide a more robust basis for valuing actual carbon emission reductions, especially in electricity systems with high penetration of intermittent renewable technologies.
Item Type: | Article |
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Additional Information: | Erratum at 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105027 |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/affordable_and_clean_energy |
Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School |
UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Responsible Business Regulation Group |
Related URLs: | |
Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
Date Deposited: | 18 Aug 2020 23:56 |
Last Modified: | 08 Mar 2024 04:30 |
URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/76485 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104905 |
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