Where did the time (series) go? Estimation of marginal emission factors with autoregressive components

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Beltrami, Filippo, Burlinson, Andrew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5156-0057, Giulietti, Monica, Grossi, Luigi, Rowley, Paul and Wilson, Grant (2020) Where did the time (series) go? Estimation of marginal emission factors with autoregressive components. Energy Economics, 91. ISSN 0140-9883

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Abstract

This paper offers a novel contribution to the literature on Marginal Emission Factors (MEF) by proposing a robust empirical methodology for their estimation across both time and space. Our Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models with time-effects not only outperforms the established models in the economics literature but it also proves more reliable than variations adopted in the field of engineering. Utilising half-hourly data on carbon emissions and generation in Great Britain, the results allow us to identify a more stable path of MEFs than obtained with existing methodologies. We also estimate marginal emission effects over subsequent time periods (intra-day), rather than focussing only on individual settlement periods (inter-day). This allows us to evaluate the annual cycle of emissions as a result of changes in the economic and social activity which drives demand. Moreover, the reliability of our approach is further confirmed upon exploring the cross-country context. Indeed, our methodology proves reliable when applied to the case of Italy, which is characterised by a different data generation process. Crucially, we provide a more robust basis for valuing actual carbon emission reductions, especially in electricity systems with high penetration of intermittent renewable technologies.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Erratum at 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105027
Uncontrolled Keywords: sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/affordable_and_clean_energy
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 18 Aug 2020 23:56
Last Modified: 13 Apr 2023 14:00
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/76485
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104905

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