Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system

Kim, Yeong Jae and Wilson, Charlie (2019) Analysing future change in the EU's energy innovation system. Energy Strategy Reviews, 24. pp. 279-299. ISSN 2211-467X

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We develop a novel approach for quantitatively analysing future storylines of change by combining econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation for four different storylines of change in the EU's energy innovation system. We explore impacts on three key innovation outcomes: patenting (innovation), co-invention (collaboration), and technology cost reduction (diffusion). We find that diverse mixes of policy instruments stimulate collaborative innovation activity. We find that both RD&D expenditure and trade imports support knowledge generation and exchange, and that these relationships are largely robust to future uncertainty. Conversely, we find that policy durability and stability are only weakly linked to innovation outcomes, suggesting that adaptive policy responding to rapidly changing innovation environments should play an important part of the EU's energy future.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: econometric analysis,energy technology innovation system,monte carlo simulation,scenario analysis,energy (miscellaneous) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2100/2101
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 26 Apr 2019 13:30
Last Modified: 30 Sep 2021 13:24
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.04.012

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