Factors associated with outcomes of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis and development and validation of a risk scoring system

Goode, Elizabeth C., Clark, Allan B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2965-8941, Mells, George F., Srivastava, Brijesh, Spiess, Kelly, Gelson, William T. H., Trivedi, Palak J., Lynch, Kate D., Castren, Edit, Vesterhus, Mette N., Karlsen, Tom H., Ji, Sun-Gou, Anderson, Carl A., Thorburn, Douglas, Hudson, Mark, Heneghan, Michael A., Aldersley, Mark A., Bathgate, Andrew, Sandford, Richard N., Alexander, Graeme J., Chapman, Roger W., Walmsley, Martine, Hirschfield, Gideon M. and Rushbrook, Simon M. and UK-PSC Consortium (2019) Factors associated with outcomes of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis and development and validation of a risk scoring system. Hepatology, 69 (5). pp. 2120-2135. ISSN 0270-9139

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Abstract

Background & Aims: We sought to identify factors predictive of liver transplantation or death in patients with Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC), and to develop and validate a contemporaneous risk score for use in a real‐world clinical setting. Methods: Analysing data from 1001 patients recruited to the UK‐PSC research cohort, we evaluated clinical variables for their association with 2‐ and 10‐year outcome through Cox‐proportional hazards and C‐statistic analyses. We generated risk scores for short‐ and long‐term outcome prediction, validating their use in two independent cohorts totalling 451 patients. Results:36% of the derivation cohort were transplanted or died over a cumulative follow‐up of 7,904 years. Serum alkaline phosphatase ≥2.4×ULN at 1 year post diagnosis, was predictive of 10‐year outcome (HR=3.05, C=0.63, median transplant‐free survival 63 versus 108 months, p<0.0001), as was the presence of extra‐hepatic biliary disease (HR=1.45, p=0.01). We developed two risk scoring systems based upon age, values of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, platelets, presence of extra‐hepatic biliary disease and variceal haemorrhage, which predicted 2‐ and 10‐year outcome with good discrimination (C=0.81 and 0.80 respectively). Both UK‐PSC risk scores were well‐validated in our external cohort, and out‐performed the Mayo and APRI scores (C=0.75 and 0.63 respectively). Whilst heterozygosity for the previously validated HLA‐DR*03:01 risk allele predicted increased risk of adverse outcome (HR=1.33, p=.001), its addition did not improve the predictive accuracy the UK‐PSC risk scores.  Conclusions: Our analyses, based upon a detailed clinical evaluation of a large representative cohort of participants with PSC, furthers our understanding of clinical risk markers and reports the development and validation of a real‐world scoring system to identify those patients most likely to die or require liver transplantation.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	uk-psc,prognostic factor,risk score,cholestasis,autoimmune liver disease
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Public Health and Health Services Research (former - to 2023) Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Norwich Clinical Trials Unit Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Health Services and Primary Care Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Centres > Population Health
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	17 Jan 2019 16:30
Last Modified:	19 Oct 2023 02:21
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/69606
DOI:	10.1002/hep.30479

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