Linking warming effects on phenology, demography and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Alves, José A., Gunnarsson, Tómas G., Sutherland, William J., Potts, Peter M. and Gill, Jennifer (2019) Linking warming effects on phenology, demography and range expansion in a migratory bird population. Ecology and Evolution, 9 (5). pp. 2365-2375. ISSN 2045-7758

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Abstract

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10- fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fuelled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change,population dynamics,species distribution,temperature,waders,ecology, evolution, behavior and systematics,ecology,nature and landscape conservation,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1100/1105
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Biological Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Organisms and the Environment
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	07 Nov 2018 12:30
Last Modified:	13 May 2023 00:40
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/68796
DOI:	10.1002/ece3.4746

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