The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting
Brown, Alasdair and Yang, Fuyu (2019) The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting. International Journal of Forecasting, 35 (1). pp. 288-296. ISSN 0169-2070
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Abstract
Prediction markets have proved excellent tools for forecasting, outperforming experts and polls in many settings. But do larger markets, with a wider participation, perform better than smaller markets? This paper analyses a series of repeated natural experiments in sports betting. The Queen’s Club Tennis Championships are held every year, but every other year the Championships clash with a major soccer tournament. We find that tennis betting prices become significantly less informative when participation rates are affected adversely by the clashing soccer tournament. This suggests that measures which increase prediction market participation may lead to a greater forecast accuracy.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | prediction markets,forecasting,sports betting,natural experiment |
Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics |
Related URLs: | |
Depositing User: | Pure Connector |
Date Deposited: | 11 Jun 2018 14:33 |
Last Modified: | 13 Feb 2021 00:55 |
URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/67342 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.002 |
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