The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting

Brown, Alasdair and Yang, Fuyu (2019) The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting. International Journal of Forecasting, 35 (1). pp. 288-296. ISSN 0169-2070

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Abstract

Prediction markets have proved excellent tools for forecasting, outperforming experts and polls in many settings. But do larger markets, with a wider participation, perform better than smaller markets? This paper analyses a series of repeated natural experiments in sports betting. The Queen’s Club Tennis Championships are held every year, but every other year the Championships clash with a major soccer tournament. We find that tennis betting prices become significantly less informative when participation rates are affected adversely by the clashing soccer tournament. This suggests that measures which increase prediction market participation may lead to a greater forecast accuracy.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	prediction markets,forecasting,sports betting,natural experiment
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Applied Econometrics And Finance
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2018 14:33
Last Modified:	01 Jul 2025 00:31
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/67342
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.002

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