Global response of clear-air turbulence to climate change

Storer, Luke, Williams, Paul and Joshi, Manoj ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811 (2017) Global response of clear-air turbulence to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (19). 9976–9984. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is one of the largest causes of weather-related aviation incidents. Here we use climate model simulations to study the impact that climate change could have on global CAT by the period 2050–2080. We extend previous work by analyzing eight geographic regions, two flight levels, five turbulence strength categories, and four seasons. We find large relative increases in CAT, especially in the midlatitudes in both hemispheres, with some regions experiencing several hundred per cent more turbulence. The busiest international airspace experiences the largest increases, with the volume of severe CAT approximately doubling over North America, the North Pacific, and Europe. Over the North Atlantic, severe CAT in future becomes as common as moderate CAT historically. These results highlight the increasing need to improve operational CAT forecasts and to use them effectively in flight planning, to limit discomfort and injuries amongst passengers and crew.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	05 Sep 2017 05:07
Last Modified:	20 Oct 2023 01:07
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/64744
DOI:	10.1002/2017GL074618

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