Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period

Hawkins, Ed, Ortega, Pablo, Suckling, Emma, Schurer, Andrew, Hegerl, Gabi, Jones, Phil ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5032-5493, Joshi, Manoj ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Osborn, Timothy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Mignot, Juliette, Thorne, Peter and van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (2017) Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (9). 1841–1856. ISSN 0003-0007

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Abstract

Better defining (or altogether avoiding) the term ‘pre-industrial’ would aid interpretation of internationally agreed global temperature limits and estimation of the required constraints to avoid reaching those limits. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process agreed in Paris to limit global surface temperature rise to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’. But what period is ‘pre-industrial’? Some-what remarkably, this is not defined within the UNFCCC’s many agreements and protocols. Nor is it defined in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the evaluation of when particular temperature levels might be reached because no robust definition of the period exists. Here we discuss the important factors to consider when defining a pre-industrial period, based on estimates of historical radiative forcings and the availability of climate observations. There is no perfect period, but we suggest that 1720-1800 is the most suitable choice when discussing global temperature limits. We then estimate the change in global average temperature since pre-industrial using a range of approaches based on observations, radiative forcings, global climate model simulations and proxy evidence. Our assessment is that this pre-industrial period was likely 0.55–0.80°C cooler than 1986-2005 and that 2015 was likely the first year in which global average temperature was more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels. We provide some recommendations for how this assessment might be improved in future and suggest that reframing temperature limits with a modern baseline would be inherently less uncertain and more policy-relevant.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	03 Feb 2017 03:24
Last Modified:	14 Jun 2023 12:49
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/62284
DOI:	10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1

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