Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea: a new time series and modeling approach to CPR data

Jansen, Teunis, Kristensen, Kasper, Payne, Mark, Edwards, Martin, Schrum, Corinna and Pitois, Sophie (2012) Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea: a new time series and modeling approach to CPR data. PLoS One, 7 (6). ISSN 1932-6203

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Abstract

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock.lved questions about this stock

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2012 Jansen et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	27 May 2016 16:01
Last Modified:	22 Oct 2022 01:12
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/59126
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0038758

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