Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Liu, Zhu, Guan, Dabo, Wei, Wei, Davis, Steven J., Ciais, Philippe, Bai, Jin, Peng, Shushi, Zhang, Qiang, Hubacek, Klaus, Marland, Gregg, Andres, Robert J., Crawford-Brown, Douglas, Lin, Jintai, Zhao, Hongyan, Hong, Chaopeng, Boden, Thomas A., Feng, Kuishuang, Peters, Glen P., Xi, Fengming, Liu, Junguo, Li, Yuan, Zhao, Yu, Zeng, Ning and He, Kebin (2015) Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. Nature, 524 (7565). pp. 335-338. ISSN 0028-0836

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Abstract

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO<inf>2</inf> emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate-change mitigation,sustainability,climate-change policy,sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/affordable_and_clean_energy
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Global Development (formerly School of International Development) Faculty of Science > School of Mathematics
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	09 Dec 2015 17:00
Last Modified:	12 Jun 2023 12:40
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/55745
DOI:	10.1038/nature14677

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