On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity

Cawley, Gavin C., Cowtan, Kevin, Way, Robert G., Jacobs, Peter and Jokimäki, Ari (2015) On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity. Ecological Modelling, 297. pp. 20-25. ISSN 0304-3800

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Abstract

In a recent issue of this journal, Loehle (2014) presents a "minimal model" for estimating climate sensitivity, identical to that previously published by Loehle and Scafetta (2011). The novelty in the more recent paper lies in the straightforward calculation of an estimate of transient climate response based on the model and an estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity derived therefrom, via a flawed methodology. We demonstrate that the Loehle and Scafetta model systematically underestimates the transient climate response, due to a number of unsupportable assumptions regarding the climate system. Once the flaws in Loehle and Scafetta's model are addressed, the estimates of transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity derived from the model are entirely consistent with those obtained from general circulation models, and indeed exclude the possibility of low climate sensitivity, directly contradicting the principal conclusion drawn by Loehle. Further, we present an even more parsimonious model for estimating climate sensitivity. Our model is based on observed changes in radiative forcings, and is therefore constrained by physics, unlike the Loehle model, which is little more than a curve-fitting exercise.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Computing Sciences

University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Computational Biology (subgroups are shown below) > Machine learning in computational biology
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Depositing User: Pure Connector
Date Deposited: 09 Mar 2015 07:31
Last Modified: 07 Aug 2020 23:37
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/52501
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.10.018

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