The climatology of Thailand and future climate change projections using the regional climate model precis

Inthacha, Sujittra (2011) The climatology of Thailand and future climate change projections using the regional climate model precis. Doctoral thesis, University of East Anglia.

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The climate of Thailand has not been studied in as much depth as in other parts of continental Southeast Asia. The baseline climate of Thailand during 1961-1990 is first analysed using daily observational data from five
surface stations, each representing a different region of Thailand, supplemented by the high resolution 0.5° monthly gridded observational dataset, CRUTS2.1. The latter leads to a deeper understanding of the spatial
variation in seasonal cycles of key climate variables in Thailand. Also revealed is an increase in the number of tropical depressions crossing Thailand during La Niña years. It was found that there is a statistically
significant intensification (reduction) of precipitation during La Niña (El Niño) years at Surat Thani (Chiang Mai) in southern (northern) Thailand during ON (JJAS). This work facilitates the Regional Climate Model validation work which follows.

The Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies regional climate model, PRECIS, was run for the first time over Southeast Asia to specifically study the climate of Thailand. The first phase is model validation during the 1961-1990 baseline period. An ensemble of RCM
runs is undertaken to study the sensitivity to the driving GCM. The added value provided by PRECIS in comparison to the coarser driving models is
discussed. The possible causes of model bias are investigated. The model projections for the end of this century are undertaken based on high (SRESA2)
and low (SRES-B2) emission scenarios which estimate the range of possible climate change in Thailand. These RCM simulations suggest trends in temperature that are broadly in line with those reported by IPCC. PRECIS A2 and B2 simulations mostly produce small precipitation increases in JJAS and small precipitation increases (decreases) during DJF under the A2 (B2) scenario. Wet season precipitation increases appear to be related to higher rain intensity on fewer rain days.

Item Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Zoe White
Date Deposited: 26 Sep 2013 14:09
Last Modified: 26 Sep 2013 14:09

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