Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems

Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Wetterhall, F., He, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3014-3964, Cloke, H. L. and Thielen, J. (2011) Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Advances in Geosciences, 29. pp. 27-32. ISSN 1680-7340

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Abstract

In this paper the properties of a hydrometeorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster’s approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	Users 2731 not found.
Date Deposited:	15 Aug 2011 12:07
Last Modified:	09 Dec 2024 01:15
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/34534
DOI:	10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011

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