Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere

Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Gaffen, D. J., Bengtsson, L., Doutriaux, C., Boyle, J. S., Esch, M., Hnilo, J. J., Jones, P. D., Meehl, G. A., Roeckner, E., Taylor, K. E. and Wehner, M. F. (2000) Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. Science, 287 (5456). pp. 1227-1232. ISSN 1095-9203

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Abstract

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere- ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	20 Jul 2011 11:00
Last Modified:	14 Oct 2025 09:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/33993
DOI:	10.1126/science.287.5456.1227

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