The observed global warming record: What does it tell us?

Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5032-5493 and Raper, S. C. B. (1997) The observed global warming record: What does it tell us? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 94 (16). pp. 8314-8320. ISSN 1091-6490

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Abstract

Global, near-surface temperature data sets and their derivations are discussed, and differences between the Jones and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change data sets are explained. Global-mean temperature changes are then interpreted in terms of anthropogenic forcing influences and natural variability. The inclusion of aerosol forcing improves the fit between modeled and observed changes but does not improve the agreement between the implied climate sensitivity value and the standard model-based range of 1.5- 4.5°C equilibrium warming for a CO2 doubling. The implied sensitivity goes from below the model-based range of estimates to substantially above this range. The addition of a solar forcing effect further improves the fit and brings the best-fit sensitivity into the middle of the model-based range. Consistency is further improved when internally generated changes are considered. This consistency, however, hides many uncertainties that surround observed data/model comparisons. These uncertainties make it impossible currently to use observed global-scale temperature changes to narrow the uncertainty range in the climate sensitivity below that estimated directly from climate models.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Paper presented at a colloquium entitled Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change, and held November 13-15, 1995, at the National Academy of Sciences, Irvine, CA
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	20 Jul 2011 09:27
Last Modified:	24 Sep 2024 10:32
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/33952
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.94.16.8314

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