The climate change commitment

Wigley, T. M. L. (2005) The climate change commitment. Science, 307 (5716). pp. 1766-1769. ISSN 1095-9203

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Abstract

Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1°C. The CE warming commitment is 2° to 6°C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Depositing User:	Rachel Snow
Date Deposited:	04 Apr 2011 13:17
Last Modified:	24 Sep 2024 10:01
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/27949
DOI:	10.1126/science.1103934

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