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Cawley, Gavin C. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4118-9095, Janacek, Gareth J., Haylock, Malcolm R. and Dorling, Stephen R.
(2007)
Predictive uncertainty in environmental modelling.
In:
Neural Networks.
Elsevier, pp. 537-549.
Abstract
Artificial neural networks have proved an attractive approach to non-linear regression problems arising in environmental modelling, such as statistical downscaling, short-term forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentrations and rainfall run-off modelling. However, environmental datasets are frequently very noisy and characterized by a noise process that may be heteroscedastic (having input dependent variance) and/or non-Gaussian. The aim of this paper is to review existing methodologies for estimating predictive uncertainty in such situations and, more importantly, to illustrate how a model of the predictive distribution may be exploited in assessing the possible impacts of climate change and to improve current decision making processes. The results of the WCCI-2006 predictive uncertainty in environmental modelling challenge are also reviewed, suggesting a number of areas where further research may provide significant benefits.
| Item Type: | Book Section |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | predictive uncertainty,environmental modelling,multilayer perceptron,statistics,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Computing Sciences Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Data Science and Statistics Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Computational Biology Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences |
| Depositing User: | Rosie Cullington |
| Date Deposited: | 26 Feb 2011 18:55 |
| Last Modified: | 01 Aug 2023 23:53 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/25130 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.neunet.2007.04.024 |
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