The Sensitivity of Subjective Probability to time and elicitation method

Loomes, Graham and Mehta, Judith (2007) The Sensitivity of Subjective Probability to time and elicitation method. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34 (3). pp. 201-16. ISSN 0895-5646

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The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’ events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications for policy-related survey work.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: mid:11696 dc:ueastatus:post-print formatted dc:ueahesastaffidentifier:0000783077620
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Social Sciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
Depositing User: Vishal Gautam
Date Deposited: 01 Jun 2007
Last Modified: 01 Feb 2023 16:30
DOI: 10.1007/s11166-007-9012-y

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