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Skinner, Daniel T., Robbins, Connor 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3762-4744, Inglis, Gordon N., Joshi, Manoj ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Langdon, Peter, Matthews, Adrian J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0492-1168, Peaple, Mark, Osborn, Timothy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799 and Sear, David A.
(2026)
Decadal-scale drivers of South Pacific hydroclimate variability.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
ISSN 0035-9009
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Abstract
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the dominant perennial rainfall feature of the Southern Hemisphere, yet the physical mechanisms driving its variability on decadal to multidecadal time-scales are poorly understood. Using prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) perturbations in the atmosphere-only Intermediate Global Circulation Model version 4 (IGCM4), we investigate the direct atmospheric mechanisms by which three major modes of low-frequency climate variability—the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), and Southern Ocean SST-driven midlatitude jet shifts—modulate the South Pacific hydroclimate. IPO forcing produces the most substantial and spatially coherent SPCZ response: a positive IPO anomaly drives a northeastward shift in the SPCZ, while a negative IPO shifts the SPCZ southwestward. This behaviour arises from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic changes, with anomalous moisture convergence—rather than altered Rossby-wave refraction—emerging as the dominant control on SPCZ position. By contrast, AMV-forced atmospheric teleconnections exert only weak and statistically insignificant impacts on South Pacific precipitation; any apparent signal is best interpreted as an alias of IPO-like SST anomalies in the Pacific. Southern Ocean SST anomalies induce significant shifts in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet and associated Hadley–Ferrel cell structure, but these changes do not generate a coherent SPCZ displacement. Instead, precipitation changes reflect large-scale regions of anomalous ascent and descent, driven by Hadley and Ferrel cell shifts, rather than modifications to SPCZ dynamics.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | Data Availability Statement: CMIP6 data used to generate IPO and AMV SST anomalies are available from the Earth System Grid Federation, and were accessed via the CEDA archive(Boucher et al., 2018; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), 2018; Tatebe & Watanabe, 2018; Danabasoglu et al., 2019; Li, 2019; Swart et al., 2019b; Tang et al., 2019; Wieners et al., 2019; Ziehn et al., 2019). 20th Century reanalysis data are available from the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (Compo et al., 2011). |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | amv,ipo,midlatitude jet,spcz,sdg 13 - climate action,das in place,giss), 2018; tatebe & watanabe, 2018; danabasoglu et al., 2019; li, 2019; swart et al., 2019b; tang et al., 2019; wieners et al., 2019; ziehn et al., 2019). 20th century reanalysis data are available from the noaa physical sciences laboratory (compo et al., 2011).,2026 ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre |
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| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Oct 2026 14:16 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Oct 2026 07:21 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104799 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/qj.70312 |
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