Tools
Tools
Naz, Falak, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M, Jenkins, Katie 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6740-5139, Dogan, Tugba, Kysely, Jan, Plavcová, Eva and Urban, Ales
(2026)
The impact of population ageing on temperature-related mortality projections in the Czech Republic.
Environmental Research: Climate.
ISSN 2752-5295
(In Press)
Preview |
PDF (Naz+et+al_2026_Environ._Res.__Climate_10.1088_2752-5295_aea925)
- Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Climate change and population ageing are jointly reshaping temperature-related mortality patterns in Europe; however, their combined effects remain insufficiently quantified on the national scale. In the Czech Republic, cold-related mortality has historically exceeded heat-related mortality, but this pattern is expected to shift under future climate and demographic transitions. Here, we projected future heat- and cold-attributable mortality under both climate-only and population ageing scenarios. We estimated age-specific (<75 and ≥75 years) temperature–mortality associations for all 14 NUTS-3 regions using a three-stage time-series modelling framework and combined them with high-resolution EURO-CORDEX climate projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway population scenarios under RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. Heat- and cold-attributable mortalities were projected across four future periods. Heat-attributable mortality increases substantially, rising from 2 deaths historically to 20 deaths by the 2090s under RCP8.5/SSP5. Cold-attributable mortality declines under climate-only scenarios but increases markedly when population ageing is included, reaching 105 deaths by the 2090s and reversing climate-driven reductions. The combined net temperature-related mortality burden increased from 82 deaths in the historical period to 124 under population ageing scenarios, with ageing contributing to 71 additional deaths by the 2070s. Our findings demonstrate that population ageing outweighs climate-driven changes in shaping future temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic. Ignoring demographic changes leads to a substantial underestimation of future health burdens. Integrating age-specific population projections into climate-health assessments is essential for adaptation planning and public health preparedness in ageing societies.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Data availability statement: The mortality data used in this study are anonymised and were obtained from the Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic and the Czech Statistical Office under a data-sharing agreement; therefore, they cannot be made publicly available. Access to these data may be granted upon request to the the original data provider or via the authors (Aleš Urban, urban@ufa.cas.cz). Climate projections used in this study are publicly available through the EURO-CORDEX (https://euro-cordex.net/), while population data were sourced from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (https://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/). To support reproducibility, the exposure-response function coefficients from the first-stage analysis, along with the complete R code used in subsequent analyses, will be made openly available via GitHub (https://github.com/Falak260/Population-ageing.git) and archived in Zenodo (10.5281/zenodo.19224535) within one month of manuscript acceptance. All datasets used are routinely collected and contain no personal identifiable information. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | temperature-related mortality,population ageing,climate change |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Sep 2026 13:58 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Sep 2026 13:58 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104598 |
| DOI: | 10.1088/2752-5295/aea925 |
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |