Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity projections to longwave radiation

Dai, Yi, Nolan, David S., Torn, Margaret S., Williams, Ian N. and Collins, William D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4463-9848 (2025) Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity projections to longwave radiation. Climate Dynamics, 63 (6). pp. 1-11. ISSN 0930-7575

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Abstract

The accurate projection of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity within a warming climate remains a formidable challenge. Computational limitations require reductions in scale and complexity of high-resolution models, while coarse-resolution models may incorrectly represent critical physical processes. This study investigates the substantial influence of longwave radiation, evaluating its effects on projections in both model categories. Within the framework of an axisymmetric high-resolution model, the inclusion of radiation is likely to reduce projections of increased intensity. In the context of a 3D coarse-resolution model, the role of radiation in TC intensity, and projections of future intensity, is subject to errors that can be attributed to unresolved eyewall dynamics. This study evaluates the radiative effects on intensity projection as model grid spacing decreases from Δx ~ 50 km to Δx < 10 km. Beyond the consideration of maximum intensity, supplementary metrics, including TC strength and rapid intensification, are introduced and discussed. This study provides new understanding of the intricate interplay between longwave radiation, TC intensity projections, and the influence of model resolution.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability The simulation dataset created in this study is saved in a public repository zenodo with DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10730012. Acknowledgements Simulations are performed at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science User Facility located at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This work is supported under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231 and Contract 102357. D. Nolan was supported by the National Science Foundation under AGS-2334173. This work also benefits from suggestions from three anonymous reviewers.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	global warming,intensity projection,longwave radiation,tropical cyclone,atmospheric science,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1902
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	https://www.scopus.com/pages/publication...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	01 Sep 2026 15:22
Last Modified:	06 Sep 2026 05:38
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104402
DOI:	10.1007/s00382-025-07729-1

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