Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change

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Davies, Sarah C., Thompson, Patrick L., Gomez, Catalina, Nephin, Jessica, Knudby, Anders, Park, Ashley E., Friesen, Sarah K., Pollock, Laura J., Rubidge, Emily M., Anderson, Sean C., Iacarella, Josephine C., Lyons, Devin A., MacDonald, Andrew, McMillan, Andrew, Ward, Eric J., Holdsworth, Amber M., Swart, Neil, Price, Jeff and Hunter, Karen L. (2023) Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change. Ecography, 2023 (11). ISSN 0906-7590

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Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project terrestrial species' responses to climate change and are increasingly being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty, both quantifiable and unquantifiable. To ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty through the entire model development process, from the formation of a study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines focus on correlative models and were developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species and ecosystems.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2023 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Authors. Ecography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Society Oikos. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans and Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Uncontrolled Keywords: ecosystem management,environmental change,fisheries management,future climate,habitat suitability,ecology, evolution, behavior and systematics,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 14 - life below water,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1100/1105
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 10 Aug 2026 10:00
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2026 10:00
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104064
DOI: 10.1111/ecog.06731

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