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Bercos-Hickey, Emily, Patricola, Christina M., Loring, Burlen and Collins, William D. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4463-9848
(2023)
The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Simulations.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (7).
ISSN 2169-897X
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Abstract
The deadly and destructive nature of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes understanding their response to future climate change of the utmost importance. TC genesis hinges on multiple factors, including an initial disturbance. African easterly waves (AEWs) have been shown to serve as such disturbances for TCs developing in the North Atlantic. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between AEWs and TCs and how this relationship may be affected by climate change. In this study, we examine the AEW-TC relationship in historical and future climates using three models from the HighResMIP PRIMAVERA simulations. The AEWs and TCs were tracked in the model data using objective tracking algorithms, and AEW and TC tracks were then matched together if they were close to each other in space and time. The strength of the AEWs was measured using the eddy kinetic energy and the curvature vorticity of the waves. TC strength and intensity were measured using potential intensity and lifetime maximum 10 m windspeed. We found that future changes in the frequency of AEWs are not a good indicator of future TC activity. However, AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good indicators of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Data Availability Statement: The HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate model outputs are available on the Earth System Grid Federation nodes (https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/search/cmip6-ceda). The model data can also be accessed at the UK Centre for Environmental Data Analysis's JASMIN platform (https://www.ceda.ac.uk/services/jasmin/). The AEW tracking code is located on Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/badge/latestdoi/290061935) and the TC tracks can be accessed through the UK Centre for Environmental Data Analysis under reference Roberts (2019). |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | geophysics,atmospheric science,space and planetary science,earth and planetary sciences (miscellaneous),sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908 |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Jul 2026 10:28 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Jul 2026 05:37 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103841 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2022JD037471 |
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