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Di Vittorio, A. V., Mao, J., Shi, X., Chini, L., Hurtt, G. and Collins, W. D. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4463-9848
(2018)
Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates.
Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (2).
pp. 974-982.
ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Publisher Copyright: ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | carbon,climate,earth system,land cover,land use,uncertainty,geophysics,general earth and planetary sciences,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908 |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 06 Jul 2026 13:57 |
| Last Modified: | 12 Jul 2026 23:03 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103624 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/2017GL075124 |
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