Merger simulations in EU merger control: what have we learned?

Andrews, James and Ormosi, Peter L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6472-6511 (2026) Merger simulations in EU merger control: what have we learned? European Competition Journal. ISSN 1744-1056

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Abstract

It has been over 25 years since merger simulation was first used in a European Commission merger case. Although their use has declined since the late 2010s, no comprehensive review has yet examined the evidence these simulations provide. We attempt to fill that gap, beginning with a qualitative assessment of where the Commission and the merging parties diverged in their simulation approaches, such as model selection, assumptions, and input data. We then conduct a quantitative analysis, constructing a data set of several hundred post-merger price predictions derived from simulations cited in Commission decisions. We find that simulations using econometrically estimated demand parameters generally predict lower post-merger price increases, though not universally. Contrary to common belief, the merging parties’ simulations do not consistently predict smaller price increases than those of the Commission. When econometric demand models are used, estimates from both sides tend to converge. We argue that this consistency offers a promising foundation for restoring confidence in the value of simulations in EU merger control.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Publisher Copyright: © 2026 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	european commission,merger simulations,price change,systematic review,economics, econometrics and finance (miscellaneous),law ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2000/2001
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
Related URLs:	https://www.scopus.com/pages/publication...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	25 Jun 2026 15:45
Last Modified:	25 Jun 2026 15:45
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103493
DOI:	10.1080/17441056.2026.2675832

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