Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

Ceppi, Paulo, Wilson Kemsley, Sarah, Andersen, Hendrik, Andrews, Timothy, Kramer, Ryan J., Nowack, Peer, Wall, Casey J. and Zelinka, Mark D. (2026) Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 26 (6). ISSN 1680-7375

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Abstract

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m−2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m−2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m−2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability: The HadGEM3 EIS amip data used in Fig. A4b is available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18592827 (Ceppi and Andrews, 2026). All other datasets used here are freely available online: CERES-EBAF and CERES-FBCT (https://doi.org/10.5067/Terra-Aqua/CERES/FLUXBYCLDTYP-MONTH_L3.004A, NASA/LARC/SD/ASDC, 2020, https://doi.org/10.5067/TERRA-AQUA-NOAA20/CERES/EBAF-TOA_L3B004.2, NASA/LARC/SD/ASDC, 2022 and https://doi.org/10.5067/NOAA20/CERES/FLUXBYCLDTYP-MONTH_L3.001B, NASA/LARC/SD/ASDC, 2023); ERA5 (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7, Hersbach et al., 2023a and https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, Hersbach et al., 2023b); MERRA2 (https://doi.org/10.5067/5ESKGQTZG7FO, GMAO, 2015a and https://doi.org/10.5067/2E096JV59PK7, GMAO, 2015b); JRA3Q (https://doi.org/10.20783/DIAS.645, JMA, 2022); AIRS (https://doi.org/10.5067/UBENJB9D3T2H, AIRS project, 2019); CLIMCAPS (https://doi.org/10.5067/ZPZ430KOPMIX, Barnet, 2019); CMIP6 (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov, last access: 1 February 2026).
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	27 Mar 2026 13:30
Last Modified:	29 Mar 2026 06:35
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102620
DOI:	10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026

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