Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

Ceppi, Paulo, Wilson Kemsley, Sarah, Andersen, Hendrik, Andrews, Timothy, Kramer, Ryan J., Nowack, Peer, Wall, Casey J. and Zelinka, Mark D. (2025) Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations.

Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)

Abstract

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m-2 decade-1 (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m-2 decade-1). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to aerosols and greenhouse gases (respectively 0.07±0.01, 0.06±0.01, and 0.05±0.03 W m-2 decade-1), which jointly account for 82 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.03±0.07 W m-2 decade-1), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes other than low clouds.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	27 Mar 2026 13:30
Last Modified:	31 Mar 2026 01:39
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102619
DOI:	10.5194/egusphere-2025-5206

Actions (login required)

View Item