Ocean variability and its influence on the detectability of greenhouse warming signals

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Santer, B. D. (1995) Ocean variability and its influence on the detectability of greenhouse warming signals. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100 (C6). 10,693-10,725. ISSN 0148-0227

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Abstract

In this study we use model data to assess some of the uncertainties involved in estimating when we could expect to detect ocean greenhouse warming signals. We analyze the ocean signal and noise for spatially averaged ocean circulation indices such as heat and fresh water fluxes, rate of deep water formation, salinity, temperature, transport of mass, and ice volume. A suite of greenhouse warming simulations with identical forcing but different initial conditions reveals that the signal estimated from these experiments may evolve in noticeably different ways for some ocean variables. Ocean variables that are highly sensitive indicators of surface conditions, such as convective overturning in the North Atlantic, have shorter signal detection times (35-65 years) than deep-ocean indicators (≥100 years). Optimization of the signal-to-noise ratio by (spatial) rotation of the fingerprint in the direction of low-noise components of the stochastic forcing experiments noticeably reduces the detection time (to 10-45 years). -from Authors

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: geophysics,forestry,oceanography,aquatic science,ecology,water science and technology,soil science,geochemistry and petrology,earth-surface processes,atmospheric science,earth and planetary sciences (miscellaneous),space and planetary science,palaeontology ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 23 Mar 2026 10:30
Last Modified: 23 Mar 2026 10:30
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102540
DOI: issn:0148-0227

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