Solar and Wind Energy Variability in Tropical South America: Seasonal Ocean-Atmospheric Modulators

Duque-Gardeazabal, Nicolás, Brönnimann, Stefan, Friedman, Andrew R., Dolores-Tesillos, Edgar and Martius, Olivia (2026) Solar and Wind Energy Variability in Tropical South America: Seasonal Ocean-Atmospheric Modulators. Meteorological Applications, 33 (2). ISSN 1350-4827

Microsoft Word (rba13-23-03-2026-104120 (2)) - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (13MB)

Abstract

Interannual climate variability strongly influences renewable energy availability, making it a critical factor for achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, our knowledge about the potential solar and wind energy production in tropical South America and its relation to ocean-atmospheric modes of variability is limited; modes such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), among others. Therefore, we investigate the influence of these modes on solar and wind energy. We apply partial correlations and composite analyses to reanalysis and satellite data to identify the processes connecting large-scale ocean-atmospheric variability to seasonal anomalies in renewable power generation. Our study identifies three energy hubs as regions with high climatological mean energy availability: The north Caribbean (NC), eastern Brazil (EB) and western Perú/Bolivia (WPB). ENSO influences the sea level pressure (SLP) gradients, generating wind anomalies that directly affect the wind capacity factor (CF). ENSO also affects the solar CF through reduced atmospheric moisture transport and convergence, which results in fewer clouds leading to higher-than-average surface radiation or by atmospheric subsidence. ENSO impacts the NC and EB hubs, with weaker effects in the WPB hub. The AMM is associated with cross-equatorial wind anomalies that modulate wind CF, as well as moisture convergence and cloud cover, thereby influencing solar CF. Wind CF in the NC and EB hubs is inversely modulated by the AMM, weakening winds and reducing radiation over the NC and strengthening winds and increasing radiation on the EB. The Atlantic equatorial El Niño mode (Atl3) exerts minor effects, with anomalies confined to the equatorial Atlantic. Overall, we find limited complementarity between solar and wind energy at interannual time-scale. Our results provide insights for forecasting energy production and managing energy storage for periods of low renewable energy availability.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability Statement: Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (Huang et al. 2017) is available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/netcdf/. Mauna Loa CO2 concentrations are available at https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html. ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis (Hersbach et al. 2020) data are available from Copernicus Climate Data Store web portal https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu. MSWEP (Beck et al. 2019) is available at: http://www.gloh2o.org/mswep/. EUMETSAT CLARA-A3 (Karlsson et al. 2023) is available at: https://wui.cmsaf.eu/safira/action/viewProduktDetails?fid=40&eid=22277_22492.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate oscillations,electricity,moisture convergence,moisture flux,renewable energy,solar energy,atmospheric science,sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1902
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/do...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Mar 2026 10:30
Last Modified:	29 Mar 2026 06:35
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102530
DOI:	10.1002/met.70165

Downloads

Actions (login required)

View Item