Correlation approaches to detection

Wigley, T. M.L., Santer, B. D. and Taylor, K. E. (2000) Correlation approaches to detection. Geophysical Research Letters, 27 (18). pp. 2973-2976. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

Criticisms leveled at the use of pattern correlation methods in climate-change detection studies are addressed. We first explain how spatial autocorrelation effects are accounted for. We then show why it is important to consider both pattern similarity and spatial-mean results in detection studies, and evaluate a mean-square-error statistic in this context. We also show that the use of changes in climate, as opposed to absolute climate states, does not lead to spurious trends in the pattern correlation statistic R(t). In doing this, we explain how previous pattern correlation studies account for "time arrow" effects in considering changes relative to an arbitrary reference year. We conclude that criticisms of the pattern correlation method are without substance.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	geophysics,earth and planetary sciences(all) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	20 Mar 2026 15:30
Last Modified:	20 Mar 2026 15:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102522
DOI:	10.1029/2000GL011611

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