Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies

Santer, Benjamin D., Solomon, Susan, Thompson, David W. J. and Fu, Qiang (2026) Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies. AGU Advances, 7 (2). ISSN 2576-604X

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Abstract

Changes in the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature are an important “fingerprint” of human effects on global climate. These changes are mainly driven by human-caused increases in atmospheric levels of (Formula presented.) and other well-mixed greenhouse gases. Key features of this fingerprint are warming of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere, and cooling of the stratosphere, the layer above the troposphere. Cooling in the lower stratosphere (from roughly 15–20 km above Earth's surface) also arises from human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone. While lower stratospheric cooling diminished in the 21st century, largely due to the emerging “healing” of stratospheric ozone levels after the Montreal Protocol, strong cooling of the mid- to upper stratosphere continued unabated. Satellite observations of this distinctive fingerprint are in accord with current state-of-the-art climate model estimates of human-caused temperature changes. The claim to the contrary made in the recent US Department of Energy review of climate science is factually incorrect.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability Statement: Observational satellite temperature data used in the paper (MSU/AMSU and SSU) and synthetic satellite temperature data from CMIP6 simulation output are available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18507593 (Santer, 2026a). The Matplotlib codes for plotting Figures 1-3 are provided at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18508640 (Santer, 2026b).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate fingerprinting,stratospheric temperature,earth and planetary sciences(all),sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	20 Mar 2026 14:30
Last Modified:	23 Mar 2026 01:21
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102512
DOI:	10.1029/2025AV002196

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