Tropical vertical temperature trends:A real discrepancy?

Thorne, Peter W., Parker, D. E., Santer, B. D., McCarthy, M. P., Sexton, D. M.H., Webb, M. J., Murphy, J. M., Collins, M., Titchner, H. A. and Jones, G. S. (2007) Tropical vertical temperature trends:A real discrepancy? Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (16). ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

We examine the sensitivity of modeled and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trend amplification (the ratio of T2LT "lower troposphere" to surface changes) to several sources of uncertainty. Model behaviour is robust across a large perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3, yielding a smaller amplification range (1.44 ± 0.06) than a previous multi-model ensemble (1.41 ± 0.24). The uncertainty of inter-satellite calibration implied by available MSU T2 (mid-troposphere) estimates (σ = 0.035K) is much greater than that required to adequately resolve the trend (σ < 0.01K), or the amplification behaviour (implied amplification range ±0.95). Trend amplification uncertainty in both models and observations decreases as the timescale increases. Depending upon choice of dataset and time period, uncertainty in trend amplification estimates over 21 years lies between ±1.5 and ±0.2.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	geophysics,earth and planetary sciences(all) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 16:30
Last Modified:	18 Mar 2026 16:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102461
DOI:	10.1029/2007GL029875

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