Fingerprinting the recovery of Antarctic ozone

Wang, Peidong, Solomon, Susan, Santer, Benjamin D., Kinnison, Douglas E., Fu, Qiang, Stone, Kane A., Zhang, Jun, Manney, Gloria L. and Millán, Luis F. (2025) Fingerprinting the recovery of Antarctic ozone. Nature, 639 (8055). pp. 646-651. ISSN 0028-0836

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Abstract

The Antarctic ozone ‘hole’ was discovered in 1985 (ref. 1) and man-made ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are its primary cause2. Following reductions of ODSs under the Montreal Protocol3, signs of ozone recovery have been reported, based largely on observations and broad yet compelling model–data comparisons4. Although such approaches are highly valuable, they do not provide rigorous statistical detection of the temporal and spatial structure of Antarctic ozone recovery in the presence of internal climate variability. Here we apply pattern-based detection and attribution methods as used in climate-change studies5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10–11 to separate anthropogenically forced ozone responses from internal variability, relying on trend pattern information as a function of month and height. The analysis uses satellite observations together with single-model and multi-model ensemble simulations to identify and quantify the month–height Antarctic ozone recovery ‘fingerprint’12. We demonstrate that the data and simulations show compelling agreement in the fingerprint pattern of the ozone response to decreasing ODSs since 2005. We also show that ODS forcing has enhanced ozone internal variability during the austral spring, influencing detection of forced responses and their time of emergence. Our results provide robust statistical and physical evidence that actions taken under the Montreal Protocol to reduce ODSs are indeed resulting in the beginning of Antarctic ozone recovery, defined as increases in ozone consistent with expected month–height patterns.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability: MLS and OMI satellite data are publicly available at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov. CCMI model outputs are available at https://archive.ceda.ac.uk and the CESM model outputs are available at https://www.earthsystemgrid.org. All of the pre-processed model data (for example, monthly mean ozone averaged over 66° S–82° S from the CCMI and the WACCM and interpolated onto the MLS vertical coordinates) are available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14497873)57. Code availability: The code used to generate all of the figures in this analysis is available at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14497873)57.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	general,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1000
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 16:30
Last Modified:	23 Mar 2026 01:21
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102436
DOI:	10.1038/s41586-025-08640-9

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