The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature

Shi, Jia Rui, Santer, Benjamin D., Kwon, Young Oh and Wijffels, Susan E. (2024) The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature. Nature Climate Change, 14 (4). pp. 364-372. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

Gaining insight into anthropogenic influence on seasonality is of scientific, economic and societal importance. Here we show that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged from the noise of natural variability. Geographical patterns of changes in SST seasonal cycle amplitude (SSTAC) reveal two distinctive features: an increase at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes related to mixed-layer depth changes and a robust dipole pattern between 40° S and 55° S that is mainly driven by surface wind changes. The model-predicted pattern of SSTAC change is identifiable with high statistical confidence in four observed SST products and in 51 individual model realizations of historical climate evolution. Simulations with individual forcings reveal that GHG increases are the primary driver of changes in SSTAC, with smaller but distinct contributions from anthropogenic aerosol and ozone forcing. The robust human ‘fingerprint’ identified here is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on marine ecosystems.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability: The CMIP6 historical, single-forcing and FAFMIP simulation outputs are available via the Earth System Grid of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI): https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. HadISST data are available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst. ERSST data are available at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/extended-reconstructed-sst. COBE data are available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe2.html. PCMDI data are available at: https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.16921. ERA5 data are available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5. IAP data are available at: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/ocean-temperature-analysis-and-heat-content-estimate-institute-atmospheric-physics. The processed data are available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23271569 (ref. 69).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	environmental science (miscellaneous),social sciences (miscellaneous) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2301
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 15:30
Last Modified:	19 Mar 2026 09:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102435
DOI:	10.1038/s41558-024-01958-8

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