Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

Santer, Benjamin D., Solomon, Susan, Bonfils, Céline, Zelinka, Mark D., Painter, Jeffrey F., Beltran, Francisco, Fyfe, John C., Johannesson, Gardar, Mears, Carl, Ridley, David A., Vernier, Jean Paul and Wentz, Frank J. (2015) Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (2). pp. 500-509. ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this "warming hiatus" is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near-global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear-sky short-wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near-global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo-caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change,signal detection,volcanic forcing,geophysics,earth and planetary sciences(all) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 18 Mar 2026 13:30
Last Modified: 19 Mar 2026 09:33
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102426
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062366

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