External influences on modeled and observed cloud trends

Marvel, Kate, Zelinka, Mark, Klein, Stephen A., Bonfils, Céline, Caldwell, Peter, Doutriaux, Charles, Santer, Benjamin D. and Taylor, Karl E. (2015) External influences on modeled and observed cloud trends. Journal of Climate, 28 (12). pp. 4820-4840. ISSN 0894-8755

Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)

Abstract

Understanding the cloud response to external forcing is a major challenge for climate science. This crucial goal is complicated by intermodel differences in simulating present and future cloud cover and by observational uncertainty. This is the first formal detection and attribution study of cloud changes over the satellite era. Presented herein areCMIP5 model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to three cloud properties: the latitudes at which the zonally averaged total cloud fraction (CLT) is maximized or minimized, the zonal average CLT at these latitudes, and the height of high clouds at these latitudes. By considering simultaneous changes in all three properties, the authors define a coherent multivariate fingerprint of cloud response to external forcing and use models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to calculate the average time to detect these changes. It is found that given perfect satellite cloud observations beginning in 1983, the models indicate that a detectable multivariate signal should have already emerged. A search is then made for signals of external forcing in two observational datasets: ISCCP andPATMOS-x. The datasets are both found to show a poleward migration of the zonal CLT pattern that is incompatible with forcedCMIP5 models.Nevertheless, a detectable multivariate signal is predicted by models over the PATMOS-x time period and is indeed present in the dataset. Despite persistent observational uncertainties, these results present a strong case for continued efforts to improve these existing satellite observations, in addition to planning for new missions.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Publisher Copyright: © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	clouds,pattern detection,radiative forcing,atmospheric science ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1902
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 13:30
Last Modified:	19 Mar 2026 09:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102425
DOI:	10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00734.1

Actions (login required)

View Item