Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries

Solomon, Susan, Ivy, Diane, Gupta, Mukund, Bandoro, Justin, Santer, Benjamin, Fu, Qiang, Lin, Pu, Garcia, Rolando R., Kinnison, Doug and Mills, Michael (2017) Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122 (16). pp. 8940-8950. ISSN 2169-897X

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Abstract

Observed and modeled patterns of lower stratospheric seasonal trends in Antarctic ozone and temperature in the late 20th (1979–2000) and the early 21st (2000–2014) centuries are compared. Patterns of pre-2000 observed Antarctic ozone decreases and stratospheric cooling as a function of month and pressure are followed by opposite-signed (i.e., “mirrored”) patterns of ozone increases and warming post-2000. An interactive chemistry-climate model forced by changes in anthropogenic ozone depleting substances produces broadly similar mirrored features. Statistical analysis of unforced model simulations (from long-term model control simulations of a few centuries up to 1000 years) suggests that internal and solar natural variability alone is unable to account for the pattern of observed ozone trend mirroring, implying that forcing is the dominant driver of this behavior. Radiative calculations indicate that ozone increases have contributed to Antarctic warming of the lower stratosphere over 2000–2014, but dynamical changes that are likely due to internal variability over this relatively short period also appear to be important. Overall, the results support the recent finding that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole is underway and that coupling between dynamics, chemistry, and radiation is important for a full understanding of the causes of observed stratospheric temperature and ozone changes.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Publisher Copyright: ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	antarctica,ozone,stratosphere,temperature,geophysics,atmospheric science,space and planetary science,earth and planetary sciences (miscellaneous),sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1908
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 13:30
Last Modified:	23 Mar 2026 01:21
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102412
DOI:	10.1002/2017JD026719

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