Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

Santer, Benjamin D., Po-Chedley, Stephen, Zelinka, Mark D., Cvijanovic, Ivana, Bonfils, Céline, Durack, Paul J., Fu, Qiang, Kiehl, Jeffrey, Mears, Carl, Painter, Jeffrey, Pallotta, Giuliana, Solomon, Susan, Wentz, Frank J. and Zou, Cheng Zhi (2018) Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature. Science, 361 (6399). ISSN 0036-8075

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Abstract

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Publisher Copyright: © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	general,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1000
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 13:30
Last Modified:	23 Mar 2026 01:21
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102409
DOI:	10.1126/science.aas8806

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