Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Eyring, Veronika, Cox, Peter M., Flato, Gregory M., Gleckler, Peter J., Abramowitz, Gab, Caldwell, Peter, Collins, William D., Gier, Bettina K., Hall, Alex D., Hoffman, Forrest M., Hurtt, George C., Jahn, Alexandra, Jones, Chris D., Klein, Stephen A., Krasting, John P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lorenz, Ruth, Maloney, Eric, Meehl, Gerald A., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Pincus, Robert, Ruane, Alex C., Russell, Joellen L., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Santer, Benjamin D., Sherwood, Steven C., Simpson, Isla R., Stouffer, Ronald J. and Williamson, Mark S. (2019) Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, 9 (2). pp. 102-110. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Publisher Copyright: © 2019, Springer Nature Limited.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	environmental science (miscellaneous),social sciences (miscellaneous) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2301
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 12:30
Last Modified:	19 Mar 2026 09:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102404
DOI:	10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

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