Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Bonfils, Céline J.W., Santer, Benjamin D., Fyfe, John C., Marvel, Kate, Phillips, Thomas J. and Zimmerman, Susan R.H. (2020) Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity. Nature Climate Change, 10 (8). pp. 726-731. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach1,2 to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, FM1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns3 and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, FM2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast4,5, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone6–9 and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California10, the Sahel11,12 and India. FM2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Publisher Copyright: © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	environmental science (miscellaneous),social sciences (miscellaneous) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2301
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	18 Mar 2026 12:30
Last Modified:	19 Mar 2026 09:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102399
DOI:	10.1038/s41558-020-0821-1

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