Predicting ecosystem responses to changes in fisheries catch, temperature, and primary productivity with a dynamic Bayesian network model

Trifonova, Neda, Maxwell, David, Pinnegar, John, Kenny, Andrew and Tucker, Allan (2017) Predicting ecosystem responses to changes in fisheries catch, temperature, and primary productivity with a dynamic Bayesian network model. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 74 (5). pp. 1334-1343. ISSN 1054-3139

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Abstract

The recent adoption of Bayesian networks (BNs) in ecology provides an opportunity to make advances because complex interactions can be recovered from field data and then used to predict the environmental response to changes in climate and biodiversity. In this study, we use a dynamic BN model with a hidden variable and spatial autocorrelation to explore the future of different fish and zooplankton species, given alternate scenarios, and across spatial scales within the North Sea. For most fish species, we were able to predict a trend of increase or decline in response to change in fisheries catch; however, this varied across the different areas, outlining the importance of trophic interactions and the spatial relationship between neighbouring areas. We were able to predict trends in zooplankton biomass in response to temperature change, with the spatial patterns of these effects varying by species. In contrast, there was high variability in terms of response to productivity changes and consequently knock-on effects on higher level trophic species. Finally, we were able to provide a new data-driven modelling approach that accounts for multispecies associations and interactions and their changes over space and time, which might be beneficial to give strategic advice on potential response of the system to pressure.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Supplementary data: Supplementary material is available at the ICESJMS online version of the article.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	bayesian network,fisheries catch,species dynamics,temperature and productivity scenarios.,oceanography,ecology, evolution, behavior and systematics,aquatic science,ecology,sdg 14 - life below water ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1910
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	20 Feb 2026 16:30
Last Modified:	23 Feb 2026 01:07
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/101998
DOI:	10.1093/icesjms/fsw231

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