The Aid for Trade Paradox: A Mixed Methods Evaluation of Trade Costs and Agricultural Export Performance in Nigeria

Rabiu-Adebayo, Nafeesat Adejoke (2025) The Aid for Trade Paradox: A Mixed Methods Evaluation of Trade Costs and Agricultural Export Performance in Nigeria. Doctoral thesis, University of East Anglia.

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Abstract

This thesis analyses the impact of Aid for Trade (AfT) on Nigeria's agricultural export performance since its inception in 2005. It employs a mixed methods approach, combining econometric analyses of trade costs and exports with a qualitative process evaluation, to uncover the relationships between AfT and trade performance in Nigeria.

The first empirical chapter, Chapter 2, measures the impact of AfT on trade costs between Nigeria and its trading partners from 2005 through 2018. Using a broad measure of trade costs and an instrumental variable approach to account for endogeneity, the analysis concludes that AfT increased trade costs in Nigeria's manufacturing sector. A 1% increase in AfT corresponds to a 0.89% increase in manufacturing trade costs. However, it had no statistically significant effect on agricultural trade costs. These results reveal important sectoral variations in AfT’s impact on trade costs.

The second empirical chapter, Chapter 3, uses an augmented gravity model with increasingly detailed fixed effects to analyse the impact of AfT on Nigeria’s agricultural exports over the same period. The findings show that AfT had a positive impact on Nigeria's agricultural exports, with a 1% increase in AfT associated with about 0.2% to 0.4% increase in agricultural exports. Different AfT components show varying effectiveness: while economic infrastructure aid has mixed effects, productive capacity and trade policy aid show positive effects. In addition, AfT also had a greater (more positive) impact on exports within the ECOWAS regional framework. This paradox, whereby AfT increased agricultural exports despite having no significant effect on agricultural trade costs, presents an analytical puzzle that is thoroughly examined in Chapters 4 and 5.

To explore these differentiated impacts further, this study conducts a process evaluation of the USAID-funded Nigerian Expanded Trade and Transport (NEXTT) project, an important AfT project, which was implemented between 2012 and 2017. The evaluation was conducted using semi-structured interviews, document analysis, and trade data triangulation. According to the findings, hard infrastructure investments along the Lagos-Kano-Jibiya (LAKAJI) Corridor encountered significant implementation challenges, such as institutional fragmentation, corruption, and ineffective coordination. In contrast, soft infrastructure interventions, such as business development activities, resulted in immediate export gains, despite existing institutional constraints.

This study contributes to the AfT discourse in three important ways. First, it shows that AfT's impact varies significantly across sectors, implementation approaches, and regional contexts. Second, it draws attention to the critical role of regional frameworks, as ECOWAS membership appears to amplify export gains. Third, it uncovers temporal trends indicating that initial adjustment costs may temporarily increase trade costs before delivering longer-term benefits. These findings call for phased, context-specific AfT intervention strategies that work within regional structures, build on thorough institutional diagnostics, and address sector-specific requirements. The study demonstrates that context trumps resources in aid effectiveness.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Global Development (formerly School of International Development)
Depositing User:	Chris White
Date Deposited:	02 Feb 2026 14:05
Last Modified:	02 Feb 2026 14:05
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/101810
DOI:

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