The capacity for adaptation to climate warming in a naturalized annual plant (Brassica rapa)

Grieshop, Karl, Weis, Arthur, So, Cameron and Rotman, Sydney (2025) The capacity for adaptation to climate warming in a naturalized annual plant (Brassica rapa). Evolution, 79 (12). pp. 2724-2738. ISSN 0014-3820

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Abstract

The persistence of a declining population under environmental change may depend on how fast natural selection restores fitness, a process called “evolutionary rescue”. In turn, evolutionary rescue depends on a population’s adaptive capacity, which can be defined as the ratio between additive genetic variance for fitness [V A (W)] and mean fitness (Formula presented), or represented by (Formula presented). However, little is known about how both V A (W) and $\bar W$ change in wild populations during environmental change, including changes in dominance variance for fitness [V D (W)]. We assessed the change in (Formula presented) and V D (W) for a Québec population of wild mustard (Brassica rapa) under climate warming. We also assessed adaptive constraints that could arise from negative genetic correlations for fitness across environments. We grew a pedigreed population of 7,000 plants under ambient and heated (+4 °C) temperatures and estimated the change in mean survival and fecundity (Formula presented), V A (W), and V D (W), plus cross-environment genetic correlations (r A ). V A for fecundity non-significantly increased under heated conditions, mean fecundity (Formula presented) increased significantly, and (Formula presented) was unchanged. We also detected no significant r A for survival and fecundity, suggesting little antagonistic constraint to adaptation. Overall, while this B. rapa population may feature some adaptive plasticity via fecundity, its adaptive capacity to warming seems limited.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	brassica rapa,adaptation,additive genetic variance,climate warming,dominance genetic variance,plasticity,agricultural and biological sciences(all),genetics,ecology, evolution, behavior and systematics,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1100
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Biological Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	14 Jan 2026 15:30
Last Modified:	14 Jan 2026 15:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/101609
DOI:	10.1093/evolut/qpaf187

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