The global hydrogen budget

Ouyang, Zutao, Jackson, Robert B., Saunois, Marielle, Canadell, Josep G., Zhao, Yuanhong, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Krummel, Paul B., Patra, Prabir K., Peters, Glen P., Dennison, Fraser, Gasser, Thomas, Archibald, Alexander T., Arora, Vivek, Baudoin, Gabriel, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Davis, Stephen J., Feron, Sarah, Guo, Fangzhou, Hauglustaine, Didier, Jones, Christopher D., Jones, Matthew, Kato, Etsushi, Kennedy, Daniel, Knauer, Jürgen, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., O'Sullivan, Michael, Pétron, Gabrielle, Poulter, Benjamin, Rogelj, Joeri, Calle, David Sandoval, Smith, Pete, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tian, Hanqin, Wang, Chenghao and Wiltshire, Andy (2025) The global hydrogen budget. Nature. pp. 616-624. ISSN 0028-0836

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Abstract

Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2,3,4,5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability Anthropogenic emission data: CEDS data are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, EDCAR v.8.1 is available from https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ap81/, ECLIPSE v.6b is available from https://iiasa.ac.at/models-tools-data/ global-emission-fields-of-air-pollutants-and-ghgs/. Fire burning and emission data: GFED is available from https://www.globalfiredata. org/, FINN is available from https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d312009/, GFAS is available from ECMWF at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/ dataset/global-fire-assimilation-system, and QFED is available from https://ftp.as.harvard.edu/gcgrid/data/ExtData/HEMCO/QFED/v2018· 07/. CMIP6 fire data is obtained from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/ input4MIPs/. Biogenic VOC emission data: MEGANv3.2 VOC is obtained from https://www.scidb.cn/en/detail?dataSetId=flcdb0cfbd70410d 88f491a75844912b, and CAMS-GLOB-BIOvl.2, CAMS-GLOB-BIOv3.0, CAMS-GLOB-BlOv3.1, and MEGAN-MACC are obtained from https:// eccad.aeris-data.fr/. OH fields and CH, fields: INVAST OH Fields can be requested from Didier Hauglustaine, other seven CMIP6 OH fields are available from https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/input4MIPs/, The three CH4 fields can be requested from Marielle Saunois and Prabir K. Patra. Soil attributes: GLDAS data are available from https://ldas.gsfc. nasa.gov/gldas, and TRENDY model data are obtained from individual modelers and also partially available at https://mdosullivan.github.io/ GCB/. Different emission factors are summarized in Supplementary Information, and the gridded Η2 sinks and sources data produced in this study is available at Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/records/17162658). Figure 2 is created using Adobe Illustrator. Source data are provided with this paper.
Faculty \ School:	University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Dec 2025 10:30
Last Modified:	23 Dec 2025 12:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/101490
DOI:	10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1

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