Climate offsets CO2 increase as the main driver of tree growth in arid and semi-arid northern China

Yang, Tao, Yang, Bao, Wang, Shuangjuan, Boucher, Étienne, Rossi, Sergio, Hermoso, Ignacio and Osborn, Timothy J. (2025) Climate offsets CO2 increase as the main driver of tree growth in arid and semi-arid northern China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130 (20). ISSN 2169-897X

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Abstract

The combined contribution of CO2 fertilization and climate variability to arid and semi-arid forest growth remains unclear. To disentangle these multiple influences, we used a preexisting process-based ecophysiological model (MAIDENiso) to simulate tree growth changes during 1956–2010 in arid and semi-arid regions of China. Results revealed that simulated tree growth was more dependent on climate trends than on atmospheric CO2 concentration. Mechanistic analysis showed that the regulation of stomatal conductance under water stress positively affected tree growth in the arid region, but had an opposite pattern in the semi-arid region. Intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE, measured from tree-ring δ13C) has increased by 29% and 44% since 1900 CE in the arid and semi-arid regions, respectively, but did not stimulate radial tree growth. This suggests that there will possibly be a continued increase (decrease) of radial forest growth in arid (semi-arid) areas of northern China if the current climate trends remain in the next decades.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability Statement: Meteorological observations were obtained from the China National Meteorological Science Data Center (https://data.cma.cn/dataService/cdcindex/datacode/A.0012.0001/show_value/normal.html). Atmospheric CO2 concentration records were obtained from the Mauna Loa Observatory (https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html). The CN05.1 gridded data set is available from Wang (2025) via figshare (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.28702061.v1). The ERA5-Land reanalysis data set was obtained from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2022; https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land-monthly-means). SPEI data were obtained through the KNMI climate explorer ((Trouet & Van Oldenborgh, 2013; http://climexp.knmi.nl). Reconstructed PDSI data were obtained from Cook et al. (2010) (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/asia/cook2010pdsi/). Tree-ring width chronologies and tree-ring δ13C chronologies generated in this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Eddy covariance data from the Dayekou Guantan forest station are available at https://eco.gssdc.cn/metadata/b87808ab-5c18-4096-863d-12a447f24016. B.Y., T.Y. and J.W. are funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grants 42130511 and 42261134537). We are grateful the Shaanxi Natural Science Foundation Project (2022JQ-257). B.Y., T.Y., and T.J.O. were supported by the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action “INTEGRATE, an integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extratropical climate variability and extremes” (NSFC Grant 41661144008; NERC Grant NE/P006809/1).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	mate change,tree growth,co2 fertilisation,waier-use efficiency,tree ring,northern china
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Related URLs:	https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	13 Oct 2025 15:34
Last Modified:	13 Oct 2025 15:34
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/100708
DOI:	10.1029/2025JD043318

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