Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean

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Holt, Jason, Katavouta, Anna, Hopkins, Joanne, Amoudry, Laurent O., Appendini, Christian M., Arneborg, Lars, Arnold, Alex, Artioli, Yuri, Aucan, Jerome, Berx, Barbara, Cagigal, Laura, Dominicis, Michela De, Denamiel, Cléa, Galli, Giovanni, Graham, Jennifer A., Jacobs, Zoe, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Kamranzad, Bahareh, Langlais, Clothilde, Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl, Lira-Loarca, Andrea, Lyddon, Charlotte, Mathis, Moritz, Melet, Angélique, Méndez, Fernando, Muis, Sanne, Myers, Paul, O'Donovan, Mairéad, Olbert, Agnieszka Indiana, Palmer, Matthew D., Phillips, Lachlan, Polton, Jeff, Buil, Mercedes Pozo, Robins, Peter, Ruju, Andrea, Schlaefer, Jodie A., Senatore, Alfonso, Siedlecki, Samantha, Tinker, Jonathan, Verri, Giorgia, Vilibić, Ivica, Wei, Xiaoyan and Pinardi, Nadia (2025) Future climate projections in the global coastal ocean. Progress in Oceanography, 235. ISSN 0079-6611

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Abstract

Resilient coastal communities and sustainable marine economies require actionable knowledge to plan for and adapt to emerging and potential future climate change, particularly in relation to ecosystem services and coastal hazards. Such knowledge necessarily draws heavily on coastal ocean modelling of future climate impacts, using a great diversity of both global and regional approaches to explore multiple societal challenges in coastal and shelf seas around the world. In this paper, we explore the challenges, solutions and benefits of developing a better coordinated and global approach to future climate impacts modelling of the coastal ocean, in the context of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME; part of the CoastPredict programme). Particularly, we address the need for diverse modelling approaches to meet different societal challenges, how regions can be harmonised through clustering and typology approaches, and how coordination of experimental designs can promote a better understanding of uncertainties and regional responses. Improved harmonisation of future climate impact projections in the global coastal ocean would allow sectoral and cross-sectoral global scale risk assessments, improve process understanding and help build capacity in under-represented areas such as the global south and small island developing states. We conclude with a proposed framework for a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Project.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article. Funding information: This work was supported by the: NERC NC International Science project FOCUS (NE/X006271/1), NERC-funded CHAMFER (NE/W004992/1) and CANARI (NE/W004984/1 ) projects, UKRI-funded Co-Opt project (NE/V016423/1), NERC SEARCH project (NE/V004239/1). LC and FM acknowledge the funding from projects HyBay (PID2022-141181OB-I00, Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities) and Perfect-Storm (2023/TCN/003 – Cantabria Government/FEDER, UE). LC acknowledges the funding from the Juan de la Cierva – Formación FJC2021-046933-I. IV acknowledges the support of Croatian Science Foundation (Grant IP-2022-10-9139, project C3PO, and IP-2022-10-306, project GLOMETS) and Interreg IT-HR project AdriaClimPlus. CL and JS acknowledge the funding of R+ postdoctoral fellowship from CSIRO research Office.
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate downscaling,climate impacts,coastal hazards,coastal ocean modelling,coastal seas,marine economy,marine ecosystems,aquatic science,geology,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 14 - life below water ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1100/1104
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 18 Sep 2025 15:30
Last Modified: 21 Sep 2025 06:32
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/100438
DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103497

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