Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023

Müller, Jens Daniel, Gruber, Nicolas, Schneuwly, Aline, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Gehlen, Marion, Gregor, Luke, Hauck, Judith, Landschützer, Peter and McKinley, Galen A. (2025) Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023. Nature Climate Change, 15 (9). pp. 978-985. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

In 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reached record highs, partly due to a strong El Niño. Based on historical responses to elevated global mean SSTs, oceanic CO 2 uptake in 2023 should have increased (−0.11 ± 0.04 PgC yr −1), driven by reduced outgassing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, using observation-based estimates of ocean CO 2 fugacity, we show here that the global non-polar ocean absorbed about 10% less CO 2 than expected (+0.17 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1). This weakening was caused by the anomalous outgassing of CO 2 in the subtropical and subpolar regions, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, driven primarily by elevated SSTs reducing the solubility of CO 2. In most regions, this SST-induced outgassing was mitigated by the depletion of dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface mixed layer. Such negative feedbacks caused an overall muted response of the ocean carbon sink to the record-high SSTs, but this resilience may not persist under long-term warming or more severe SST extremes.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	environmental science (miscellaneous),social sciences (miscellaneous),sdg 14 - life below water,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2301
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-0...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	16 Sep 2025 14:30
Last Modified:	11 Oct 2025 15:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/100414
DOI:	10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4

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