Socio-techno-economic analysis of hydrogen adoption as a transport sector fuel alternative in Pakistan: an analytic hierarchy process approach

Tools

Kumbhar, Abdul Azeem, Alam, Muhammad, Memon, Tarique Ahmed, Waseer, Basit Akram, Ali, Noushad, Ahmed, Faizan and Landini, Stefano (2025) Socio-techno-economic analysis of hydrogen adoption as a transport sector fuel alternative in Pakistan: an analytic hierarchy process approach. Policy Research Journal, 3 (9). pp. 60-80. ISSN 3006-7002

Preview

PDF (PRJV3I920256) - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (817kB) | Preview

Abstract

Pakistan’s transport sector consumes over 60% of petroleum products, costing USD 15–16 billion annually in imports, and accounting for nearly 30% of national CO₂ emissions, exacerbating urban air pollution. This study evaluates alternative fuel pathways for sustainable transport transformation using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Three options were considered: Battery Electric Vehicles (EVs), Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs), and Fossil Fuel Vehicles (FFVs), assessed across four criteria: environmental, economic, technological, and social. Expert judgments from 20 specialists in engineering, energy economics, and policy were synthesized through pairwise comparisons, with all matrices satisfying consistency thresholds (CR ≤ 0.1). Results indicate EVs as the preferred alternative with a global priority score of 44.5%, followed by HFCVs (21.0%) and FFVs (19.0%). Environmental criteria were most influential (50.9% weight), dominated by air quality considerations, while economic factors ranked second (26.7%). EVs outperformed in air quality (62.6%) and regulatory alignment (71.5%), while FFVs retained short-term advantages in investment costs. Sensitivity tests confirmed the robustness of the ranking under ±20% weight variation. The study recommends a phased strategy: (i) near-term EV infrastructure expansion and incentives (2024–2027); (ii) medium-term local EV manufacturing and hydrogen demonstration for freight (2027–2032); and (iii) long-term integration of hydrogen for heavy-duty applications (post-2032). The findings provide evidence-based guidance for Pakistan’s National EV Policy and highlight broader lessons for transport decarbonization in developing economies.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	hydrogen fuel cells,electric vehicles,transport decarbonisation,analytic hierarchy,energy(all),engineering (miscellaneous),general engineering,sdg 7 - affordable and clean energy,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 11 - sustainable cities and communities,2* ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2100
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physics
Related URLs:	https://policyrj.com/index.php/1/article...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	08 Sep 2025 10:30
Last Modified:	08 Sep 2025 10:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/100300
DOI:	issn:3006-7002

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Actions (login required)

View Item