Decreasing importance of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Southern Ocean in a warming climate

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Jarníková, Tereza, Le Quéré, Corinne, Rumbold, Steven and Jones, Colin (2025) Decreasing importance of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Southern Ocean in a warming climate. Science Advances, 11 (20). ISSN 2375-2548

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Abstract

The Southern Ocean is an important CO2 sink, mitigating climate change, but its future evolution is uncertain due to the confounding effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and climate change on ocean circulation. Using an Earth System Model, we quantify the relative influence of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gas emissions on this sink from 1950 to 2100. Ozone effects dominated changes in ocean circulation during 1950–2000, but not this century, implying that past trends cannot serve as proxies for future changes. Despite substantial future circulation changes induced by climate change, their effect on the CO2 sink decreases over the 21st century because of compensating factors. Thus, the Southern Ocean is unlikely to be a major future source of amplifying carbon-climate feedbacks this century.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data and materials availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Code and data are also provided on DRYAD: DOI: 10.5061/dryad.jsxksn0mc. For convenience, analysis code is also at https://github.com/tjarnikova/SO-wind-feedback. Funding information: This work was supported by UK Natural Environment Research Council CELOS project (NERC, grant NE/ T01086X/1) (C.L.Q., C.J., T.J., and S.R.), UK Natural Environment Research Council Marine Frontiers project (NERC, grant NE/V011103/1) (C.L.Q. and T.J.), and Royal Society (grant RP\\ R1\\19106) (C.L.Q.).
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	06 Aug 2025 17:30
Last Modified:	06 Aug 2025 17:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/100096
DOI:	10.1126/sciadv.adr3589

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